Census data shows that the poorest seats voted for the Coalition; by-elections or polls in four states
The Poll Bludger covered the results of the 2021 census on June 30. The most striking result is that the Coalition won the ten seats with the lowest household incomes in the federal election. These seats are all in regional Australia.
This validates my pre-election article, in which I said that whites without a university education in the regions would continue to move towards the Coalition. Labor won this election thanks to swings against the coalition in the cities, but no regional seats changed hands, and those closest to change were all held by Labour.
Read more: Final 2022 election results: Failing coalition in cities and Western Australia – can they recover in 2025?
Nine of the ten seats with the highest household incomes were in New South Wales – the tenth was Canberra in the ACT. The Teal Independents won four, the Liberals four and Labor two (Canberra and Sydney). Labor won nine of ten seats with the highest percentage of non-English speakers; the exception was Kristina Keneally’s loss to Fowler.
The top ten seats for the percentage of people aged 20-34 were all won by Labor and the Greens, while the Coalition won seven of the ten seats with the highest percentage of people aged 65 and over .
The COVID lockdowns have hit Victoria’s population particularly hard as it has fallen by 1.5% in 2021. This has put Victoria at risk of losing two seats out of its current 39 when state rights are determined for the next election in mid-2023. NSW could also lose a seat, with likely beneficiaries being WA and Queensland.
Federal Essential and SEC Newgate Polls
An Essential poll, conducted in the days leading up to June 28, had 44% strongly backed the Fair Work Commission’s announced 5.2% minimum wage increase, with 23% somewhat favourable, 9% somewhat opposed and 6% strongly opposed, for full support over a 67-15 opposition.
45% thought Australia’s electricity and gas crisis was due to years of neglect, 35% to unpredictable factors such as the war in Ukraine and COVID, and 20% to opposition to renewables.
49% think the government should implement the policies it adopted in the election regarding emissions targets, while 30% think the government should be more ambitious.
80% think it is important for Australia to have a close relationship with the United States, 78% with Pacific countries, 76% with European Union countries, 58% with China and only 33% with Russia.
The Poll Bludger reported an SEC Newgate poll on Monday that was conducted June 23-27 from a sample of 1,201 people. “Nearly four in ten” said the new government had done an excellent or good job so far, 31% fair and 26% bad or very bad.
57% expected the economy to deteriorate over the next three months, down from 36% in May, with just 8% expecting the economy to improve, down from 13%. The cost of living was deemed extremely important by 68% (up five), ahead of health care (61%, down three). By 42-23, voters favored Labor over the coalition to manage the cost of living.
By-election of Bragg (SA): the Libs hold, but with a swing of 2.5% towards the Labor party
A by-election for the Liberal South Australian-held state seat of Bragg was held on July 2. Poll Bludger results show a Liberal victory of 55.6 to 44.4, a 2.5% shift towards Labor since the March 2022 election. Primary votes were 50.5% for the Liberals (in down 3.3%), 30.0% for Labor (up 1.3%) and 14.9% for the Greens (up 2.2%).
On Election Day voting booths, which were the only votes counted on election night, the Liberals had only led 50.9 to 49.1, but they increased their vote share by 4.7% after the counting of the votes before the ballot and by correspondence.
The by-election was prompted by the resignation of Liberal Vickie Chapman after the Liberals lost the March election. Bragg is an indoor metro seat that has the highest median household income in SA. In the March election, there was an 8.8% swing to Labor in Bragg, which reduced the Liberal margin to the lowest it had been before the by-election.
YouGov Queensland poll: 50-50 tie
A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, reported by The Poll Bludger, had tied Labor and the LNP at 50-50, a two-point gain for the LNP since February. The primary votes were 38% LNP (stable), 34% Labor (down five), 14% Greens (up four) and 10% One Nation (up two).
45% approved of Labor Prime Minister Annastacia Palaszczuk’s performance (down five) and 39% disapproved (up three), for a net +6 approval, down eight points. LNP leader David Crisafulli was at 31% approval (up five) and 23% disapproval (down five). Palaszczuk led as the top premier 41-28. This survey was conducted from June 23 to 30 with a sample of 1,044 people.
Victorian Morgan Poll: 59.5-40.5 v Labor
The Victorian election is at the end of November. A Morgan SMS poll, taken from June 30 to July 2 among a sample of 1,710 people, gave Labor a lead of 59.5 to 40.5, unchanged since last November. Primary votes were 43.5% Labor (down 1.5), 29.5% Coalition (up 0.5), 12% Green (up 1.5) , 2% for PSU (down two) and 13% for all others (up 1.5).
Labor Prime Minister Daniel Andrews had an approval rating of 63.5 to 36.5, unchanged from November. He edged Liberal Leader Matthew Guy by 64.5 to 35.5 as the top prime minister.
I’m dubious about that poll because Morgan was the most pro-Labour pollster, and the Victorian result for Labor in the federal election was down that poll by about five points, with big swings for the coalition in the safe outside metro Labor seats, presumably due to Andrews’ handling of COVID.
NSW Essential poll: Coalition leads Labor 37-33 on primary votes
The New South Wales state election will take place in March 2023. An Essential poll reported in The Guardian gave the Coalition 37% of the primary vote and Labor 33%. Unfortunately, the report does not mention the primary votes of the other parties. This survey was conducted for five days after the June 21 state budget with a sample of 700 people.
Liberal Prime Minister Dominic Perrottet had a 49% approval rating and a 35% disapproval rating (net +14), while Labor leader Chris Minns was at 39% approval, 22% disapproval (net +17).
Boris Johnson has resigned. How is the next Conservative leader elected?
After being dropped by the Cabinet, Boris Johnson resigned as leader of Britain’s Conservatives last Thursday but will remain caretaker prime minister until a new leader is elected. Johnson has been embroiled in scandals, UK inflation rose 9.1% in the 12 months to May and the Conservatives lost two seats in recent by-elections.
To elect a new leader, Conservative MPs vote in rounds, with the lowest candidate eliminated in each round, until only two remain. The latter two go to Conservative members, who vote by mail. In the first round, there will be a threshold of 5% for all candidates running, and 10% in the second round.
To be certain of reaching the last round, a candidate needs a third of the votes of the deputies. Members are more to the right than MPs, so if a right-wing candidate ranks in the bottom two, that candidate could win.
These are the rules that applied in the 2019 Conservative leadership election. Elections for the 1922 committee that makes the rules will take place on Monday UK time.