While the population growth of the City of Sonoma over the past 10 years was negligible – from 10,648 in 2010 to 10,739 in 2020, or 0.01% – the Latinx population of the City of Sonoma has increased by 21% during that period, according to data from the 2020 U.S. Census.

Still, many census watchdogs say it’s almost certainly an undercount, given the pandemic has upended the decade-long population count in 2020, just as awareness of membership community was beginning.

“Census launch day was April 1 and it was right at the start of the shutdown,” recalled Angie Sanchez, who helped lead census education efforts last year for the nonprofit center. lucrative La Luz. “So when outreach on the ground was supposed to start, we had to completely change our strategy.”

Suddenly, schools were closed and community events were gone – as was the ability to reach many of the underserved populations most likely to be missed on the census.

The issue of a potential undercount may be partly addressed in the coming months in what’s called the post-enumeration survey, a small US Census Bureau follow-up survey designed to assess the accuracy of the longer count. important in independently surveying a sample of the population.

The post-census survey is expected to last through 2022 – but not everyone needs to wait months for the results to venture a guess as to whether some underserved populations in the Sonoma Valley may have to be underestimated.

“I really think that while there has been an increase (shown for the population of Latinx County), I believe that due to COVID, we weren’t able to reach everyone that we wished we could. “Sanchez said of her. the team’s census outreach efforts, which focused on Latinx communities in the Springs area.

Springs Matter

The county’s overall population grew by about 1%, reflecting a similar growth plateau over the past decade to the city of Sonoma. Likewise, the county’s 17.4% increase in its Latinx community was close to Sonoma’s 21%—the county and city’s Latinx population increases were about 4% of their region’s overall population.

However, while Sonoma County and City have seen relatively stable populations since the last count, the Springs area north of the city limits has declined in total population by 441, or about 7%.

Sanchez believes this is likely a sign of an undercount in an area with an estimated 44% Latinx population.

While she admits other factors have likely contributed to the decline, including the high cost of living and wildfires in recent years, she still feels “there were hard-to-count populations. that we missed”.

Best prepared census plans

Before the pandemic, Sanchez and his census outreach colleagues in La Luz had ambitious plans to educate the Latinx community about the importance of participating in the census — from pop-up events in schools to creating a census card game. , “Censoteria”, based on the Mexican bingo-style game “Loteria”.

They wanted people to know that the census is more than just a count of people — it determines where more than $1.5 trillion in federal funds will be distributed in local communities, affecting programs like CalFresh, which is used by more than 40% of Latinos in Sonoma County, according to La Luz.

But that message has been largely drowned out by a year of repeated closings, canceled community events and public safety guidelines banning nearly all gatherings of more than a dozen people. Suddenly, census outreach efforts had to “get creative,” Sanchez said, by going virtual or going to food distribution centers and reaching people in their cars.

“Everything that we did virtually and socially distanced, I think was a big step towards educating the Latino community about the census,” she said. But this prevented them from reaching some of the places they thought would be most effective – schools and “going to the fields to talk to farm workers”.

The effects of undercoverage

Sonoma resident and Sonoma State University politics professor David McCuan said another reason a potential undercount would be detrimental locally is that the U.S. census also determines representation.

First and foremost, the distribution of Congress is decided by the US Census. This year, California lost a seat in the House of Representatives for the first time in its 170-year history.

But at a hyper-local level, he said, an “undercount disproportionately affects disgruntled emerging communities, just as many cities in local areas look to district-level elections,” which are aimed at to give a great voice to these communities.

What’s more, McCuan said, an increase in registered voters in disgruntled communities — what he calls the Rising American Electorate, or RAE — is largely based in “emerging suburbs, aka ‘exurbs.’ »

“These areas are quite fluid in the types and depth of the emerging voter population,” McCuan said in an email to the Index-Tribune. “It wouldn’t be Sonoma proper – but would include the springs and the areas around the springs, for example. This potentially affects tons of political issues in those areas — like housing — one of the toughest issues in the state and region.

Finally, McCuan thinks the momentum gained over the past decade to elect “a more diverse and more Democratic set of office holders” could be stalled. “An undercount could potentially change that movement,” McCuan added.

An ongoing dialogue on the census

If there’s a lesson to be learned from the pandemic’s effect on census outreach efforts, Sanchez thinks we shouldn’t wait 10 years between educating people about its importance.

“Even now, with the census done and the next one in 2030, I still tell people about it,” Sanchez said. “I’m really proud of the work we’ve done and that so many people know about the census because of it. »

His only regret is how COVID has changed the dynamic of their outreach. “A lot of families have doubled and tripled housing” and couldn’t be reached, she said.

Community education must continue, she insists.

“Next year we may begin an annual countdown event on April 1 – nine more years to the census!” Sanchez said. “It must be an ongoing conversation.”

Email Jason Walsh at [email protected]